Recalling Drucker's and Noaman's predictions and recommendations about higher education

Next year is 2017, only ten years from the date when a man Forbes called "the most perceptive observer of the American scene since Alexis de Tocqueville" predicted large universities would be gone from the U.S.

“Thirty years from now the big university campuses will be relics," the late Peter F. Drucker was quoted in a March 10, 1997 Forbes article. "Universities won’t survive. It’s as large a change as when we first got the printed book."

Drucker, then 87, made additional comments and predictions in that article that at this distance sound almost prophetic.

“Do you realize that the cost of higher education has risen as fast as the cost of health care?" Drucker said in the article. "And for the middle-class family, college education for their children is as much of a necessity as is medical care—without it the kids have no future. Such totally uncontrollable expenditures, without any visible improvement in either the content or the quality of education, means that the system is rapidly becoming untenable. Higher education is in deep crisis.”

He also made predictions about the economy in general.

"In the next economic downturn, there will be an outbreak of bitterness and contempt for the super-corporate chieftains who pay themselves millions," Drucker said. "In every major economic downturn in U.S. history, the ‘villains’ have been the ‘heroes’ during the preceding boom."

Drucker's predictions relative to higher education in the U.S. were recalled in recommendations made in 2011 by Abu Noaman, CEO of Elliance, an interactive marketing agency that helps colleges and universities achieve enrollment, advancement and awareness goals.

Noaman, in his own article published in the February 2011 edition of University Business, recalled Drucker's predictions and offered seven recommendations for avoiding the predictions for higher education by 2027. Most of Noaman's recommendations have to do with traditional colleges and university learning from the practices of their for-profit counterparts.

Noaman's first point was to embrace online channels.

"For-profit colleges, with the intent of following their potential students, have moved the lion's share of their marketing investments away from traditional channels toward online channels," Noaman said.

Traditional colleges and universities then had been slow to adopt online channels, clinging instead to channels that once worked but no longer were.

"Expensive direct-mail campaigns, television ads, billboards and view books continue to be the staples of traditional college marketing," Noaman wrote. "But all respectable polls from Pew, Harris, and Noel-Levitz clearly indicate prospective students are using the internet to make their college choices, and are largely ignoring old-style marketing."

Noaman's second point was for traditional colleges and universities to respond to mega-trends the same way as for-profit bodies of higher learning.

"The rapid rise of for-profit colleges is a direct result of traditional colleges' failure to meet the special needs of nontraditional students," Noaman wrote. "If traditional colleges decide to take care of this segment's special needs - such as flexibility, service, and mature cohorts - they stand a good chance of deriving benefit from the sheer number of adult students."

Noaman's third point was for traditional colleges and universities to invest in technology infrastructure to deliver online and hybrid learning.

"For-profit colleges understandably spend more than 10 percent of their operating budget on technology infrastructure," Noaman wrote. "In contrast, a traditional college spends less than 3 percent. Without investing adequately in this area, traditional colleges don't stand a chance at capturing their fair share of the adult market or the respect of traditional students."

Noaman's fourth point was a call for innovative curriculum to prepare students for professional careers while still creating critical thinkers.

"Traditional colleges' timeless liberal arts courses do an excellent job teaching important critical thinking skills," Noaman wrote.

"These classes need to stay intact. The structure should be modified, however, to quickly adapt the rest of the courses - those designed to provide practical knowledge. Preparing students for degrees in medicine, education, engineering, design, business, media, and more means teaching them how to use current technologies."

Noaman's fifth point was for traditional colleges and universities to go beyond conventional metrics such as student achievement, student-to-faculty ratio, faculty load and brand exposure.

"For-profit schools, however, have supplemented conventional metrics with new performance metrics," Noaman wrote. "By understanding cost-per-lead, revenue-per-student and profit margins, for-profit colleges are quickly measuring their operational performance and making go or no-go decisions. Today's economic reality means traditional colleges can no longer make decisions without considering the impact on the bottom line."

Noaman's sixth point was for traditional colleges and universities to create an agile culture by moving away from organizational hierarchies, consensus-based decision making and academic traditions.

"For-profit colleges have organized themselves to become more agile by eliminating some hierarchies, making fact-based decisions, and creating autocratic democracies," Noaman wrote. "Traditional colleges must follow suit."

Noaman's final point was for traditional colleges and universities to excel at customer service.

"For-profit colleges tend to treat students like customers," Noaman wrote. "They have created enrollment counselors, financial counselors, concierge services and policies to serve students on a timely basis. Classes are often scheduled to accommodate students' needs, rather than the convenience of professors.

Drucker died Nov. 11, 2005, eight years after making his predictions about the future of high education in the U.S. by 2027 and almost six years before Noaman wrote his seven points for avoiding those predictions. Those seven points could make all the difference,

"If institutions implement these suggestions, they can prevent Drucker's prediction from becoming a reality," Noaman wrote in his 2011 article.